Pedro Corzo: El dedo de Lula

Brasil enfrenta unos comicios importantes. Sus instituciones son fuertes y aparentemente están preparadas para soportar grandes tensiones, pero también es evidente que un amplio sector de ciudadanos de ese país, están hartos de la corrupción y los malos manejos de los gobiernos del Partido de los Trabajadores que capitanean Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva y la actual mandataria Dilma Rousseff.

Por Pedro Corzo
Tomado de Gentiuno.Com

[caption width="500" align="alignright"] Dilma y su máster cubano[/caption]

No es de esperar que un cambio de residentes en el Palacio de Planalto afecté sustancialmente la política económica y de desarrollo social del país, pero si se supone una mayor transparencia en la administración y también una política hacia América Latina más comprometida con la democracia y el respeto a los derechos humanos.

El gobierno de Rousseff sufrió las mayores protestas sociales de los últimos veinte años. La ciudadanía exigía servicios de mayor calidad, pero además rechazaba el gasto de miles de millones en la construcción de infraestructura para el Mundial de Fútbol, y la corrupción asociada a muchos de los proyectos del magno evento.

La economía brasileña solo ha crecido este año un 0.29% y la inflación está cerca del 6.5 % que aprueba el gobierno, no obstante la administración mantiene su política de inclusión social y lucha contra la pobreza.

Por otra parte en política exterior Rousseff al igual que su predecesor Lula da Silva, ha guardado un silencio bochornoso ante las violaciones a los derechos humanos en los países de la Alianza Bolivariana de Las Américas y a las frecuentes faltas a las prácticas democrática en esos países.

Conducta de mayor complicidad con Cuba

[caption width="550" align="alignleft"] Lula y José Dirceu[/caption]

En relación a Cuba su conducta ha sido todavía de mas complicidad que la que desplegó su mentor. En el puerto de Mariel el estado brasileño ha invertido 640 millones de dólares y contratado a 11,400 médicos cubanos a los que les paga menos de una cuarta parte de su salario, enviando el reto del dinero al gobierno de Raúl Castro, una acción fuertemente criticada en Brasil por diferentes instituciones, incluidas las de profesionales de la salud.

Recientemente el diario brasileño O Globo informó que el gobierno Rousseff por medio del Banco Nacional para el Desarrollo, facilitó al de La Habana un crédito secreto superior a los mil millones de dólares, este aspecto fue abordado por el candidato Aecio Neves en uno de los debates a la presidencia.

[caption width="400" align="alignright"] Lula y Dilma[/caption]

Lula da Silva, el gran elector, controla el Partido de los Trabajadores y su influencia es evidente, porque fue su decisión que Dilma Rousseff fuera la candidata del partido en los comicios del 2010, cuando su favorito José Dirceu, fue atrapado en un multimillonario escándalo de corrupción.

Este vicio también ha estado presente en el mandato de Rousseff, porque hace unas semanas Paulo Roberto Costa declaró que el partido de gobierno se quedaba con el 3% del valor de los contratos que firmaba la empresa petrolera del estado, Petrobras.

Esta denuncia es avalada porque hace dos años la Corte Suprema de Brasil condeno a altos dirigentes del PT por haber llevado una contabilidad paralela que tenía como fin comprar el apoyo de legisladores aliados del oficialismo para proyectos del gobierno. Este fue el escándalo por el que Dirceu fue sancionado a casi once años de cárcel, junto a otros 24 colegas del Partido de los Trabajadores, entre ellos Jose Genoino, ex presidente de la agrupación y Delubio Soares, ex tesorero del organismo.

En un punto y aparte hay que reseñar que aunque Lula da Silva no estuvo involucrado en el famoso proceso del Mensalon, si fue mencionado.

Pero bien, la realidad es que Lula da Silva sigue siendo el gran elector. Cuando Rousseff estaba cayendo vertiginosamente la rescató interviniendo activamente a su favor y atacando a su rival Marina Silva, la candidata del opositor Partido Socialista Brasileño y favorita en las encuestas. Silva había acompañado por 24 años, a quien fuera junto a Fidel Castro, co fundador del Foro de Sao Paulo, un organismo que agrupa a subversivos y terroristas de muchas banderas, pero que tienen en común ser enemigos de la democracia.

Fue Lula quien sacó de la campaña a Silva, al igual que promovió a Dirceu como su sucesor y posteriormente a Rousseff cuando su primer elegido resultó convicto. De nuevo en el 2014 ha vuelto a apoyar a su discípula, por lo que hay espacios para muchas preguntas entre ellas, intereses del Partido o de da Silva.

Evidentemente Lula es poderoso, tanto que lleva a recordar el característico “dedazo” del Partido Revolucionarios Institucional de México y por supuesto a evocar los dos dedos más enérgicos del PRI, Plutarco Elías Calles y Lázaro Cárdenas, de quienes al parecer Lula heredó su energía, porque la candidata y presidenta Rousseff, dijo que le apoyaría en los comicios del 2018 si decide ser candidato.

Acerca del Autor
Pedro Corzo, Santa Clara Cuba 1943 | Reside en Miami desde 1992. Presidente del Instituto de la Memoria Histórica Cubana contra el Totalitarismo. Escritor y periodista. Trabaja en Radio Martí. Ha publicado una decena de libros y producido varios documentales. Columnista de El Nuevo Herald y otras publicaciones.

Upcoming Elections in South America: Some Hope for Change but Great Uncertainty

Three elections are due to take place in one-month period. One in Brazil (where the first round already took place), another one in Bolivia and finally one in Uruguay. We only know that we don’t know what is going to happen after this round of elections.

By Prof Luis Fleischman

The only election which result is certain is in Bolivia on October 12

Interestingly enough, the only election whose result is certain is the one in Bolivia, will take place on October 12, where the incumbent president Evo Morales leads with 38% of the vote while the rest are small parties that are well behind him. Morales is a highly authoritarian president, a follower of Hugo Chavez and dangerously repressive. Yet, The Morales government has benefitted, like other governments in South America, from high revenues from exports, which in a decade have increased from about $2 billion to around $10 billion. This is mostly due to high international prices of minerals and gas. Likewise, high public spending increased demand and also enabled to significantly increase employment by expanding the public bureaucracy. By the same token, the minimum wage also increased by almost 130%, benefitting the most vulnerable sectors of the population.

Thus, this explains Morales’s considerable electoral advantage, regardless of his undemocratic and antagonistic style.

Elections in Brazil and Uruguay are not as certain

On October 5th, the general elections took place in Brazil. The incumbent, President Dilma Rousseff, received 41.6% of the votes, followed by the candidate of the center-right pro-business Aecio Neves who is the head of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB). This has forced the race to a run-off, which will take place on October 26 between these two candidates.

The huge protests that the Brazilian president faced as well as the recession and corruption scandals within the Rousseff government did not affect the poor masses who still supported Rousseff. Rousseff is seen as a populist leader and protector of this sector. However, the upper class as well as important sectors of the growing middle classes seemed to have voted against her. Indeed, the result of the election brought about an immediate reaction as Brazil’s stock index climbed by 8 percent one day after the election and the national currency gained about 3 percent. This seems to be the result of new hopes in the business community raised by Neves’ electoral accomplishments.

This shows the discontent of the business community with the Workers Party government, despite the fact that this sector was included in the government of the WP from the beginning (an act that surprised many).

Now both candidates are trying to attract the 21% of the remaining votes that went to Marina Silva, an environmentalist and former member of the Workers party government. Silva, despite having some elements of populism naturally closer to Rousseff, some of his supporters already said they would vote for Neves. Still Neves has a long uphill battle in the next few weeks since it needs to win at least 75% of Silva’s votes to win the election.

Foreign policy is not widely debated in Brazil

Interestingly enough, foreign policy one of the issues that is of great concern to us is not widely debated in Brazil. However, several analysts in Brazil have pointed out that if Neves wins, we should expect a closer relation to the United States and Europe contrary to the coalition of emerging economies (BRICS) and the South-South relations (namely broader relations with third world and Arab countries) that the Workers Party avidly promoted.

This foreign policy of the Rousseff government is not just an economic policy. It is also an ideological alliance based on populism and anti-colonialism (or anti-imperialism) that has gone openly in support of a multipolar world and against what they view as U.S and European hegemony and dominance. Brazil is the regional leader of such policy and is well more effective than the vulgar style of the Venezuelan government.

Still Brazil has turned into the main protector of the openly anti-American and repressive Venezuelan government and it has successfully helped to reintegrate Cuba- more than half century communist dictatorship- to the family of South American nations. Overall Brazil has implemented a foreign policy that goes against the United States under the slogan of an “independent foreign policy” up to the point of succeeding in taking the lead among South American nations in the Middle East conflict. Thus, under Brazil leadership, many countries in the region adopted a critical position of Israel and embraced the Palestinian side unconditionally.

It would be a very positive development if Brazil changes its international approach. Brazil is an emerging economy and an emergent democracy. Its natural place is among democracies. The world’s democratic block could be significantly strengthened if Brazil joined the West, particularly in a world where the alternatives are the authoritarian and semi-democratic China and Russia and where rogue states such as Iran and Venezuela as well as terrorist groups multiply.

Uruguay will hold its election also on October 26

There are eight candidates, however, the main contest is expected to take place between the leader of the current socialist ruling party, Tabare Vazquez and the leader of the National Party Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou. Surveys indicate that the ruling Broad Front will win the first round. Yet things are not clear with regard to the run-off. According to polls, currently the Broad Front leads with 42%; the National Party follows with 32%, and the Red Party with 15%. The Red Party, led by Pedro Bordaberry, is closer in its platform to the National Party than to the Broad Front.

For example while Vazquez supports regional alliances, particularly Mercosur (the South American common market), Lacalle and Bordaberry have talked about exploring new courses such as the Pacific Alliance and more trade with the United States. Mercosur mostly subscribes to Brazil’s foreign policy.

Vazquez focused his campaign on continuity, namely, expanding the welfare state and paying attention to the most disadvantaged sectors of society. Lacalle and Bordaberry have focused their campaigns on the problem of insecurity and crime, which is rampantly increasing in the country becoming a real issue of public concern.

This means that if the 15% of those Red Party projected votes go to Lacalle, the Broad Front could ether lose the election or win by a small margin since 3% of the votes belong to the Independent Party and 3% have not yet defined themselves. This six percent can vote either way. The Popular Unity that currently has 1% is likely to go to the Broad Front and the same applies to the Ecology Party that also has 1% in the polls. Therefore, the final result seems to be uncertain.

Uruguay’s foreign policy has been attached to Brazil, particularly since President Jose Mujica from the Broad Front came to power in 2009.

Vazquez did not take such a radical approach with regard to the United States or the Venezuelan and Cuban governments when he was president between 2005 and 2010. However, it is far from clear if he would change the course set by Mujica.

A defeat for the left in Brazil and Uruguay may have a serious regional effect

Undoubtedly a defeat for the left in Brazil and Uruguay but particularly in the former may have a serious negative effect on the regional hegemony of the left. Likewise, it may have a positive effect on the relation with the United States and the geo-political map of the area. The Bolivarian Alliance (ALBA) may weaken as well. Yet, this picture remains an option but still has the status of wishful thinking for the time being.

We only know that we don’t know what is going to happen after this round of elections.

About the Author


Dr. Luis Fleischman is a Senior adviser to the Menges Hemispheric Security Project at the Center for Security Policy in Washington DC. He is also an adjunct professor of Political Science and Sociology at Wilkes Honor College at Florida Atlantic University. He is the author of the upcoming book, "Latin America in the Post-Chavez Era: The Security Threat to the United States.

Reñidas elecciones en Brasil este Domingo

Según una encuesta, el candidato pro mercado Aécio Neves supera a la ambientalista Marina Silva y se enfrentaría a la Presidenta Dilma Rousseff en segunda vuelta.

Voz de América - Redacción | VOANoticias.Com | @VOANoticias
Edición e Ilustración CubaenVivo

[caption id="attachment_43" align="alignright" width="481"] Dilma y Lula pa Cuba[/caption]

El candidato favorecido por la gran empresa, Aécio Neves, se ha colocado en segundo lugar en las elecciones presidenciales brasileñas del domingo, superando a la ambientalista Marina Silva, pero todavía por detrás de la presidenta Dilma Rousseff.

Según un sondeo de encuestadora MDA, Rousseff, del Partido de los Trabajadores, cuenta con un 40,6 por ciento del apoyo de los votantes; Neves, del del Partido de la Social Democracia Brasileña (PSDB). con un 24 por ciento; y Silva queda desplazada al tercer lugar con un 21,4 por ciento de los votos.

De ser así, habria necesidad de segunda vuelta, que por el momento las encuestas indican que ganaría la presidenta. De ser necesario ese balotaje está programado para el 26 de octubre.

El sufragio del domingo es electrónico y se anticipa que los resultados estén listos en unas cuantas horas. Se estima que unos 140 millones de brasileños votarán.

Sabe por que Dilma vai ser reeleita (infelizmente)?

A avaliação positiva do Governo Dilma caiu para 36,4% e a avaliação negativa aumentou para 24.8%

José Alberto Rios

[caption width="450" align="alignright"] A avaliação positiva do Governo Dilma caiu para 36,4% [/caption]

Sabe por que ela vai ser reeleita (infelizmente)? Porque muitas pessoas a desaprovam, mas no final votam nulo! Aí a fdp compra uns votos e se reelege. Se todos deixassem de ser burros e parassem de votar nulo, aí ela não se reelegeria!

Essa informação você não vai ver na globo: avaliação do governo Dilma despenca!

Pesquisa CNT/MDA divulgada hoje mostra o que todo mundo vê nas redes sociais: a popularidade de Dilma e a avaliação do governo em queda.

A presidente Dilma também teve queda da sua aprovação pessoal no período. A aprovação foi de 55% e a desaprovação, de 41%.
Essa informação você não vai ver na globo: avaliação do governo Dilma despenca!

Pesquisa CNT/MDA divulgada hoje mostra o que todo mundo vê nas redes sociais: a popularidade de Dilma e a avaliação do governo em queda.

A avaliação positiva do Governo Dilma caiu para 36,4% e a avaliação negativa aumentou para 24,8%.

A presidente Dilma também teve queda da sua aprovação pessoal no período. A aprovação foi de 55% e a desaprovação, de 41%.